Sterling: I've been accused here and there of being one of the most anti-Sony PlayStation editors out there. It's not that I'm "anti" or "pro" anything, except maybe stupidity and good business, respectively. First it was GTA IV. Then it was Assassin's Creed. Now it's Virtua Fighter 5. One of the readers and I have been chatting over PlayStation Network about Sony's market dominance, and I've said that Microsoft has been chipping away at their biggest strength in the PS2 era: exclusives. The Xbox got burned bad on the GTA windows of exclusivity. It seems that Microsoft is going to do their damnedest to make sure that doesn't happen again. Third-party exclusivity is going to dwindle as these systems grow and mature. Cost is the biggest factor.
First off, all we've been hearing lately is how games are getting more and more expensive to produce. And it's true. Unless you're an indie developer looking to pump out the Next Big Thing on the PlayStation Store or Xbox Live Arcade, budgets are inflating. It's becoming riskier and riskier to make edgy and groundbreaking titles, so blockbusters will dominate. The comparisons between gaming and Hollywood are going to solidify more. With that in mind, Sega, a company teetering between modest hits (Condemned, Yakuza and Chromehounds come to mind) and disasters (anything with "the Hedgehog" in the title, as of late), doesn't seem to have much of a choice. I can't imagine that it was cheap to secure the Alien license from Twentieth Century Fox, and they could use the cash.
If you ask me, Japanese games may not be enough to maintain a stronghold for the PS3. If the next Kingdom Hearts or all of those Final Fantasy XIIIs cost the amount that I'd say they can, the Sirens' call of white and lime green might call Square Enix. Given the worldwide success of Dead Rising on the 360, a PS3-exclusive Resident Evil 5 could be exceptionally risky for Capcom. Virtua Fighter 5's arrival a few months later on Xbox 360 is the symptom of a greater challenge for Sony, and if they can overcome it, 2007 and beyond will be a fascinating time for gamers worldwide.
Patrick: I hate to be the one to say "I told you so," but I did mention this. You remember -- we were out drinking, and I said, "Man, no one's going to be able to afford to release exclusives on the PS3 until there's a decent number of PS3s in homes, not being sold on eBay." And you said "What about Resistance?" And I didn't really have a good answer. This is what I'm talking about.
I will point out that I'm surprised to see Sega announce the limited exclusivity window instead of letting it run out, and then release it as a bennie. This was more or less status quo for the last generation's exclusives, and not doing so leaves Sony in an incredibly rough position. I'm not alone in saying that Virtua Fighter 5 was one of the big selling points for me in the PS3, and one of the showpiece titles. It puts Sega in an awkward position: They had to choose between placating Sony by keeping mum on this exclusive for a while, and placating their fans. Buying a PS3, or saints defend, buying a PS3 in addition to a 360 just to play Virtua Fighter 5 and then finding out that the 360 version will be out in just a few months would be pretty irritating. Roughly six hundred bucks worth of irritating.
So, all that nay-saying done, this is an excellent chance for Sony to show that the PS3 is a real contender. If the PS3 build of Virtua Fighter 5 looks better, plays better, feels better on the Sixaxis, and is so good that when the 360 version drops it hits the floor with a thud, that would be a huge victory for the PS3.
